Aug Exposed
498k
eligible users
Aug Adopted
50k
first loan taken
Monthly Loan Vol
$11.6M
August (gross loans)
Monthly Revenue
$579k
August (fee income)
ARR (Aug rate)
$6.9M
annualised
vs 20% Broad Fake Door
vs 10% Narrow Fake Door
Live formula — August
Users Exposed & Adopted Over Time
Stacked areas = eligible users by cohort · Dark line = adopted users (same axis — the gap between the line and the top of the stack shows non-adoption)
Monthly Revenue Estimate
Dashed lines show revenue at 10% adoption (Narrow) and 20% adoption (Broad) with current other settings
August ARR — Scenario Comparison
Middle bar updates with your current slider settings
Assumptions & methodology
- 10% adoption — Narrow Fake Door: from the second fake door test on eligible users only. Most representative of the actual BNPL-eligible population.
- 20% adoption — Broad Fake Door: from the first fake door test across all Cleo subscribers. Broader population; includes users who may not qualify once full eligibility criteria apply.
- Monthly loan volume = adopted users × loans/month × avg loan amount.
- Monthly revenue = loan volume × 5% transaction fee. Excludes late fees, interest, and subscription revenue. Does not factor in transaction fee caps, given all loans are assumed to be of average loan value.
- ARR = August monthly revenue × 12. Assumes the August run-rate is sustained. Does not adjust for arrears, prepayments, defaults, or seasonal variation.
- Rollout is gated on arrears <10% at 30d during MVT and <7% at 30d before each expansion stage. Arrears risk is not modelled here.